The Mandalorian and Grogu is set to hit cinemas with a high degree of box office scrutiny, as it marks the first new Star Wars film since 2019. However, Lucasfilm reportedly believes that 2027’s Star Wars: Starfighter has a better chance of revitalising the franchise.
Variety reported that the film, featuring Pedro Pascal reprising his role as Din Djarin from the popular Disney+ series, is expected to earn $80-100 million domestically over the four-day Memorial Day weekend. This figure is in line with the underwhelming 2018 spinoff, Solo: A Star Wars Story, although Variety notes that The Mandalorian and Grogu has a production budget of $165 million, nearly half that of Solo.
Eric Handler, a senior media analyst at Roth Capital Partners, has stated that Lucasfilm is struggling to engage younger audiences with Star Wars in the same way it did with previous generations. Despite the popularity of Grogu, aka Baby Yoda, as a merchandise phenomenon, Handler told Variety, “There’s clearly interest in the brand. But revenues for each film have gotten progressively lower. Star Wars isn’t resonating with younger moviegoers like it did for [older] generations.”
Variety reported that “insiders” at Lucasfilm, as well as box office analysts, have more confidence in 2027’s Star Wars: Starfighter, which stars Ryan Gosling and is set after the events of The Rise of Skywalker. The film will be directed by Shawn Levy, who is also behind Deadpool & Wolverine.
The Mandalorian and Grogu review from IGN scored 5/10. The review stated, “If you’re looking for a Star Wars movie that thrills, surprises, challenges, or demonstrates a vested interest in seeing its characters grow and change… The Mandalorian and Grogu is not the way.”
The Mandalorian and Grogu is set to release six and a half years after the controversial The Rise of Skywalker. This means there is a new generation of young fans who will experience a brand new Star Wars movie in theaters for the first time. Director Jon Favreau has spoken about this opportunity, telling The Associated Press recently, “I want to make the next generation feel the way about Star Wars that I did when I saw it for the first time.” These comments echo those of Lucasfilm co-CEO Dave Filoni, who said in March that The Mandalorian and Grogu benefits from launching without the weight of expectation that comes with introducing a new Star Wars trilogy.
Shawn Levy has described Star Wars: Starfighter as a standalone movie, neither a prequel nor a sequel. He insisted at Star Wars Celebration 2025, “It’s a new adventure. It’s set in a period of time that we haven’t seen explored yet.” Additionally, it will not feature any “legacy characters,” so do not expect to see Rey Skywalker making an appearance.
There are broader questions about the future of Star Wars. While Ahsoka Season 2 is confirmed to be in production for Disney+, there is significant uncertainty about other movies and shows that Lucasfilm announced before Kathleen Kennedy stepped down.
The Mandalorian and Grogu is scheduled to hit theaters on May 22. Star Wars: Starfighter is currently set to launch on May 28, 2027.
